ai

07
Feb

2/7 Link Roundup

It's Friday, my dudes. It has been an extremely long week in the world and for me, so here's some links I enjoyed this week.

Despair-Driven Development - Makes the argument for despair as a driver for positive change, since action gives you respite from it. My personal experience of despair in the workplace has not been that it makes me more productive, but I guess I have occasionally been motivated to do things out of sheer spite. Worth considering.

Dither Me This - Fun little web dithering tool. This is probably going on the long list of "cool graphics

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2 min read
28
Jan

The Future Is Too Easy

It is rich cynics trying to make something lifeless grow in the way that living things do, and lock the dying present they rule in for the foreseeable future by effectively removing everyone from it but them. They are impatient not just because they are high-handed and avaricious, but because they know that the only future they can rule in the way they want is one that is passive, stupid, small and shrinking.

David Roth, excellent as always, on CES in Defector. I do think it's easy to get myopic about AI as someone who exists mostly in the spaces it does have genuine utility in (programming, games, and digital art) and thus is something to fear. This stuff is still mostly useless in practice! Roth also raises a point I think isn't made enough (because I have made it a bunch and no one listens to me). Most of the run-of-the-mill uses of AI as it is currently are the various and sundry tedium of life in late capitalism, things we shouldn't have to do in the first place: filling out forms, writing cover letters, desperately trying to get someone to fix your medical bills.

A point Roth doesn't make, but one I think ties into the quote above, is that by putting their own offal into the well of data they're drawing from, AI companies are effectively freezing usable data at around the year 2023. So much of the internet is already generated slop, and it's so difficult to actually determine which data is usable, that bot-free datasets can't stay up to date. The rich are freezing AI's knowledge of the world at the dying present, functionally preventing its growing from the same means it was created. I gave a somewhat tongue-in-cheek talk about this last year, and while I'm not sure how well some of the points I made there will hold up, I do think this is something to watch. Synthetic data and curated datasets may be a way out of this hole, and maybe the slop will get good enough that it can train on its own output (model distillation is a big thing right now) but I can't help but question how far that can take us. How useful is an LLM that can't grow at the pace human culture does? What will come of them endlessly consuming their output? Or will the proliferation of LLMs prevent us from growing at all?

26
Jan

DeepSeek-R1 Initial Notes

While I've been traveling, little-known Chinese research lab Deepseek released an open-source model that can compete with the best closed-source products OpenAI and Anthropic have to offer. Everyone appears to be freaking out about it.

The reason for this is its astonishingly low training cost compared to performance (it reportedly cost $5 million dollars to train), the fact that it's open-source, and even if you choose to pay for its API, it's about 90% cheaper than its American competitors. The model is also available to try for free immediately. This is all possible because of how much cheaper the

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5 min read
21
Jan

AR Is Definitely Happening This Time

I don't know what I expected from a VentureBeat opinion piece, but it looks like AR is five minutes away again:

I refer to this new technological discipline as augmented mentality and it will emerge from the convergence of AI, conversational computing and augmented reality. And, in 2025 it will kick off an arms race among the largest companies in the world to sell us superhuman abilities.
These new superpowers will be unleashed by context-aware AI agents that are loaded into body-worn devices (like AI glasses) that travel with us throughout our lives, seeing what we see, hearing what we hear, experiencing what we experience and providing us with enhanced abilities to perceive and interpret our world. In fact, by 2030, I predict that a majority of us will live our lives with the aid of context-aware AI agents that bring digital superpowers into our normal daily experiences.  

People have been trying to sell me this bridge since I can remember, and beyond, like, a few games and Snapchat filters, AR never ends up being anything more than a novelty. I'm sure some wild AI stuff is going to happen in the next five years, but any wearable/embodied version of it that's likely to have a chance will probably be closer to an Apple watch or even the goofy Humane pin. People just don't like wearing computer screens over their eyes! I don't know if we'll ever get past that!

I think there's probably a place for AR as the technology continues to develop, but there are some intractable challenges in interface design and ease-of-use that I have yet to see a convincing solution for in the wearable space. Continued integration of low-key AR features into our phones and less-invasive peripherals like smartwatches seem much more likely to me than the idea everyone is going to have a HUD or their own personal Jarvis anytime soon. So far, smartphones remain the only place tech like this seems to get any traction.

Model-wise I'm more interested in the projector/room computer version of augmented reality that Bret Victor and my friends at Folk Computer are building - more holodeck than HoloLens. Guess I'll have to check back in five years and see how this turned out. In the meantime I will continue to die on the hill that physical inputs are still the best way of interfacing with technology.